INDIA: THE NEXT SUPERPOWER?

Foreword

In recent decades, India has been slowly climbing up the international hierarchy, increasing its global influence en route to emerging as one of the system’s premier great powers. Along with China’s spectacular rise over the last four decades, India’s own remarkable rise further encapsulates the current global shift of economic power from Europe and North America to Asia. Together, these trends herald the true beginning of the Asian Century, whereby big Asia powers will gain the capability to dominate, dictate, and ultimately define the contours of international affairs.

India has enormous momentum as it begins 2025.  Its population has surpassed China’s, making it the most populous country in the world. It is also forecasted to soon become the world’s third-largest economy, overtaking Japan in the next few years. Leading this incredible growth is the country’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, who won a third term in office last spring.

Background

History reveals that the British Empire for all practical purposes was manned by the Indian military consisting of 2.5 million soldiers. They formed the backbone and worsted Japanese, Germans and others to enable the Brits to dominate the world. Intelligently and conveniently, the British always forgot to acknowledge this simple truth. Conversely, Indians were out manoeuvred on two counts. First, by accepting the use of the Indian military power against themselves. Second, by allowing a foreign power to predominate the world with its help.

Finally, realisation has dawned on American think tanks that they need India as a strategic partner. In the next ten years, two and a half million IT savvy Indian manpower will be exported to America alone. To practically help them run their country. Besides, towards conflict resolution, an extremely large component of Indian soldiers under UN Peacekeeping and Peace Enforcement exigency are likely to be inducted from here.

The Indian Military Power

Key to India’s future rests therefore on its military power. To disallow worst case scenario to recur solely depends on New Delhi’s aptitude in augmenting the military power, which can out-gun the adversary. In addition, the ingenuity to stance it in a fashion that enforces beneficial security environs. Potent military machine is the only insurance the assertive diplomacy will have to defend its growing economic clout. For example, the loudest protests on India going nuclear were heard from a nuclear China.

Existing and potential future weapons sales are an important factor between India and Russia. Costs, path dependency, and a desire to avoid dependence on Western arms all play a role in this.

Even though its military ties with the United States have deepened in recent years, India has not ended its long-standing defense relationship with Russia and likely will not anytime soon. Russian weapons systems are cheaper than US systems, and those that India already has are not easily replaced by US arms. Moreover, New Delhi is not keen to develop a dependence on US weapons, even as it seeks to benefit from closer defense cooperation with the country. The desire to balance against not just China but also the United States will likely factor in India’s future procurement plans.

Current situation

Much ink has been spilt regarding China’s rise to great power status. When combined with Russia’s revanchist behavior and the US’ relative decline in power, this feeds into debates about the world becoming multipolar.

But a key country is often left out of the discussion: India. As far back as 2013, The Economist magazine pondered whether India could become a great power. Such commentary has recently returned. Martin Wolf of the Financial Times opined that India was poised to eventually become a superpower, going so far as placing an exact date - 2047 - on when it will achieve that status.

But can India rise to the ranks of great powers? Answering that question requires unpacking the factors that make great powers great.

Today American think-tanks are busy churning out and globally dumping anti-China materials in an effort to create a new strategic balance. That may help to contain over ambitious China. India seeks peace, but others want it to go to pieces. Unless India learns to wield its military with a telling effect, the desire of China has a distinct possibility. Imperative that the society accords natural primacy to the military power and ensures that it is well represented by officers in the key decision-making areas in the realm of national security.

Finally, realisation has dawned on American think tanks that they need India as a strategic partner on three counts. First, the demographic flow of Indians into America in future is of mind-boggling proportion. In practical terms another India already exists in the Silicon Valley and the base is rapidly being expanded all over North America. It is the hard working and yet the easy going Indian manpower that will largely control the net which dominates America.

Second, the huge emerging Indian market is too attractive to be overlooked. Third, use of Indian military power (if Brits could use the Indian troops to influence the world, why can’t the Americans?) to create the new international strategic balance against China. Japanese being the partners in this arc are now more than willing to talk to India.

Measures like these will (a) keep the military lean and mean which is an operational requirement, (b) beef up the efficiency in the administrative infrastructure, and (c) breed clear uniformity in an extremely diverse society to curb divisive tendencies.

Could India become the next Superpower?

10 criteria have been identified by which to measure the potential for a rising power to be not just expansionist, acquisitive or exploitative, but to become a moral superpower, one dedicated to safeguarding freedom and building prosperity for all.

To consider the question, it’s worth exploring what characteristics a moral superpower must possess. Ten traits could be considered.  Altogether they are:

1. A large and patriotic population.
2. High levels of education.
3. A robust, market-based (capitalist) economy.
4. Abundant natural resources on a large land mass.
5. English as a main language.
6. A large, technologically-advanced military.
7. Elections and overall freedom, guaranteed in a functional constitution.
8. Widespread religion.
9. Protective seas and strong borders.
10. Effective diplomacy.

Looking over these criteria and considering the nations of the world, their recent development, current state and overall direction, could the next moral superpower be, perhaps, just maybe…India?

The new world Superpower

At the threshold of 2000, India was still the fifteenth economy in the world in the ranking by gross domestic product but over the following twenty years it climbed ten positions, placing itself after the US, China, Japan and Germany, all nations characterized by long periods of stability politics (like, for example, the German government of Angela Merkel which lasted from 2005 to 2021). Economic analysts predict a bright future for India which by 2075 could become the world's second largest economy after China, relegating the United States to third place and Germany to ninth, overtaken by Egypt and Nigeria (after India it will be in fact Africa the new emerging economy). India should be considered as a potential new world superpower possessing the distinctive requirements of this status:

- economic supremacy;

- political supremacy, not only internal but also foreign (India is among the founding countries of the BRICS, the grouping of emerging economies that interacts with the G7 on the international balance front);

- technological supremacy extended to different sectors;

- military supremacy, which was one of India's first concerns after independence (due to the need to protect its acquired autonomy and its borders) and which also led it to develop a nuclear arsenal, among the few nations at world.

India, Russia and Ukraine

India's recalcitrance to take sides against Moscow is also based on the awareness of its role in the containment of China led by the United States. Without India there is no Indo-Pacific. After the repression in the first months of the conflict in Ukraine, Washington has shown signs of understanding Delhi's approach to the proxy war with Moscow via Kiev. The Ukrainian crisis may indeed have contributed to clarifying the rationale of India's posture, based on the pragmatic pursuit of its national interests, which are sometimes incomprehensible to American ones.

The Ukrainian war put India faced with strategic dilemmas that forced it into a plastic circle-bottism. Alienating Russia is currently out of the question. And trust with the stars and stripes superpower is still in the making. Indians are counting on the fact that the Americans will be forced to continue deepening bilateral relations for reasons of national interest, namely the containment of Beijing. Also because, despite Washington pulling out the stick when necessary, the carrots coming from overseas point in this direction.

The giant in the room is in fact China, whose perception on the Indian side has been profoundly affected by the violent clashes on the Himalayan border in mid-2020 and by the subsequent, recurring tensions along the world's largest disputed border.

This is why Foreign Minister Jaishankar recalled that the Russian-Indian relationship is among the most stable in the contemporary world and that however this is not in itself sufficient. If Delhi and Moscow aim for a multipolar world, this "also means a multipolar Asia". That is, an Asia in which Beijing does not dictate the law. Therefore, the Indians are currently careful not to turn their backs on the Russians. Much more than American reprisals for the lack of alignment on Ukraine, they fear Beijing's growing influence on Moscow, also demonstrated by the Kremlin's opposition to initiatives such as Quad and Aukus reiterated during the latest meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in which both China and India are the leading countries. 

India has a high idea of itself and equally high ambitions, which are based on enormous potential which is counterbalanced by chronic internal faults and structural delays that destabilize it on a domestic level.

India in the twenty-first century

The twenty-first century will belong to India! India will become a superpower of the world! Such announcements have been made by Indian politicians, economists and scientists. Many foreign scholars have also made predictions about the bright future of India. Will this dream come true? Is India really moving on the path of becoming a superpower, a developed nation? There seems to be some solid basis behind these claims and predictions of India’s all-round progress. In the last few years, India has proved its mettle in all fields by being the world’s largest and most stable democracy. Its economy is continuously progressing. Many of its companies have given proof of India’s industrial efficiency. Its teachers, scientists and industrialists are also showcasing their talent in foreign countries. India has set new records in every field be it science, medicine, business, art, military power, education and culture. Its scientists have made many fundamental discoveries. Its progress in the fields of space science, medicine, development of weapons, industrial efficiency, telecommunication, nuclear power etc. is remarkable. Its progress in the economic field is evidenced by the stability and steady growth of the economy. When major economies of the world were collapsing due to the global recession, the Indian economy proved its credibility by remaining unaffected by it. The increase in foreign investment and acquisition of foreign companies also proves the success of its economy.

USA, China, Russia, Japan, BRICS

The recent strengthening of military and technological cooperation with Japan can also be interpreted from an anti-Chinese perspective, which on the one hand aims to satisfy mutual development ambitions and on the other undoubtedly has a containment function towards Beijing. For now, defense remains the weak link for any ambition for power: India currently spends a quarter of the Chinese, despite the historic skirmishes between the two neighbors both on the Himalayan borders and in the Indian Ocean. Yet, news of joint military exercises involving various Asian nations, including Russia, China and India, dates back to last year, Americans are trying, it is no mystery to anyone, to use India in an anti-Chinese function, taking advantage of the well-known contrasts between the two nations. Yet, faced with the main international crisis on the table today, the Ukrainian war, India has chosen and remained faithful to a line of substantial neutrality, abstaining from the various votes within the UN.

India wants to maintain a positive relationship with Russia because it needs Moscow's support to resolve its territorial conflicts with neighbors, especially China. New Delhi also wants to continue to enjoy Russia's economic and military support, as Russia has repeatedly supported India at the United Nations on issues such as Kashmir, and many Indians feel as if it is now their turn to return the favor.

If on the one hand India is part of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa ), on the other it signs the QUAD, a military agreement with the USA, Japan and Australia with an anti-Chinese function, aware of the need for allies to deal with the powerful neighbor.  

In essence, the Indian policy presents itself as a highly pragmatic policy, which plays on multiple tables, with the ambition of acting as a "bridge" between the two nascent blocs; an attitude that was clearly seen when India allowed Russian banks to operate on its territory, circumventing their exclusion from the SWIFT payments circuit.

Considerations

Speaking on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of independence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that by 2047, when the centenary of independence will be celebrated, India aims to be the first economy in the world in terms of GDP per capita. In a certain sense, the attention to the centenary unites it with China, given that President Xi Jinping has set the goal of reunification with Taiwan at 2049 (when the one hundred years of the People's Republic will occur). Evidently for the two Asian rulers, the centenary should not just be a celebratory occasion, but an opportunity to achieve important strategic objectives.

Economic and technological development (the country is the second largest mobile phone manufacturing producer), in this sense, is seen by the Modi government as the opportunity for a new and important glue for society, together with the other lever, that of nationalism Hindu. What the rulers of New Delhi are aiming for is a national identity in which the only caste is Indianness, the only religion is the dharma of service and duty, the only God is Mother India. Resorting, especially in recent years, to myths of the past is used to emphasize and cement an idea of nation, which would have given rise to some of the most important achievements of modern civilisation, such as ethics, mathematics, medicine, physics, even the Internet.

India in the coming years is destined to further distance Canada, South Korea and Italy by engaging the quartet formed by the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Germany which is chasing the USA and China at a distance. Furthermore, leveraging Hindu nationalism could prove useful (or generate new and important divisions, depending on how one sees it) in dealing with the Islamic component. Leaving aside the traditional, very tense relations with neighbouring Pakistan, India hosts within itself around 200 million faithful, the third largest Islamic community in the world. While viewing all of Islamabad's moves with suspicion, including the recent approach to the Chinese enemy, Beijing remains the real problem at the borders (and beyond). And China has never shown itself to be condescending to the Indians, for example by opposing any proposal regarding New Delhi's permanent entry into the UN Security Council.

Conclusion

A giant with a thousand contradictions. Perhaps this is the best way to describe India, a huge country, a sub-continent, with one and a half billion inhabitants and which is divided between unprecedented technological progress and a thousand-year-old culture made up of great spirituality but also of taboos and poverty. In recent years, India is entering the world with the desire to be a power recognized by international partners and is trying to counter China's excessive power in Asia. But it has to deal with one of the largest, most difficult and complex populations on the planet.

India’s journey towards superpower status by 2050 is underpinned by its impressive economic growth, technological advancements, military capabilities, and soft power diplomacy. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the challenges that lie ahead. Addressing income inequality, improving education and healthcare systems, and ensuring sustainable development are essential to sustain India’s growth trajectory. Moreover, regional security concerns, geopolitical dynamics, and global economic trends will impact India’s path to superpower status.

With prudent policies, strategic investments, and concerted efforts, India has the potential to emerge as a global superpower by 2050. The nation’s democratic ethos, entrepreneurial spirit, and diverse cultural fabric provide a solid foundation for continued growth and influence. As India takes on a more prominent role on the global stage, it must do so responsibly, contributing to peace, stability, and inclusive growth. By harnessing its immense potential and leveraging its strengths, India can become a superpower.

India, an extraordinary melting pot of cultures with a thousand-year history, marked at the same time by very deep roots and by a syncretism resulting from the exceptional ability to assimilate and transform with the arrival of each new Islamic or European invader.

The objective is not only to globalize India, but also to globalize Indians, to push them to think about themselves in relation to the outside world, preparing for the role that the country will increasingly play on the international level.

This is why "multi-vector" politics, without biting off more than India can chew, is the key to capitalizing on global fluidity and uncertainty in terms of internal development and growth of geopolitical rank.

In short, the face that the Asian giant - religious and nationalist, net of its different declinations - will show to the world will be that of a proud, assertive, self-centred India, on average very young and attentive to its own national interest. An India that will necessarily have to continue to deal with its internal diversity and an increasingly extroverted Hindu component. But also, an India with great ambitions that draw inspiration from national development, which forces Indians to look less at their navels. An exercise also focused on the centuries-old ability of the Indian population to survive even taxing relationships with the outside world by introjecting its characteristics without ever losing awareness of itself and its historical roots. Awareness that pushes her to claim a place in the sun.